Initiate → Plan → Execute → Close
Predictive vs Adaptive: Choosing an Approach
Waterfall is not a slur and agile is not a religion. A decision framework for picking a lifecycle.
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The choice hinges on two variables: how stable the requirements are, and how expensive a change is once work has started.
| Condition | Predictive | Adaptive |
|---|---|---|
| Requirements | Known and stable | Emergent, discovered by building |
| Cost of change | High (concrete, hardware, regulation) | Low (software, content, process) |
| Customer availability | Occasional review | Continuous collaboration |
| Success measure | On time, on budget, to spec | Value delivered per increment |
Hybrid is the honest default
Most real programmes run a predictive spine — funding gates, regulatory milestones, hardware lead times — with adaptive delivery inside each phase. Declare which parts are fixed and which are negotiable before the first sprint, and the hybrid works. Leave it implicit and you get the ceremony of agile with the rigidity of waterfall.
- Fix scope and flex time when the deliverable is contractual.
- Fix time and flex scope when the deadline is a market event.
- Never fix all three of scope, time and cost — quality becomes the silent variable.
Related PMI standards & templates
External resources on pmi.org — links open in a new tab. Some require PMI membership.
PMI standard templates for this topic
Editable Word and print-ready PDF downloads — no sign-up required.
- Stakeholder register template →A PMI standard stakeholder register and engagement plan template: power/interest grid, current versus target stance, and the channel and cadence for every group.
The PM Delivery Toolkit turns everything in this guide into fill-in templates — $25, one payment.
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